World Meteorological Organization Issues Strong El Niño Alert, Forecasts Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that a strong El Niño is developing and is expected to intensify between August and October, increasing the risk of record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events across the globe. The United Nations' weather agency said the phenomenon is likely to amplify heatwaves, droughts, floods and wildfires at a time when the world's oceans are already experiencing unprecedented warmth due to climate change.

In its latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, the WMO said leading climate models project seasonal-average sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key Pacific monitoring regions, indicating one of the strongest El Niño events in recent years. The agency also forecast above-normal temperatures across most land areas worldwide during the August-October period, accompanied by major shifts in global rainfall patterns.

Describing the growing threat, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said, "El Niño is strengthening, adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas." He further warned that "El Niño is not just on our doorstep; it is inside the house and turning up the heat," while blaming continued dependence on fossil fuels for worsening the climate crisis.

El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate cycle caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The warming alters atmospheric circulation, shifting jet streams and storm tracks through long-distance teleconnections that influence weather patterns across continents. Its opposite phase, La Niña, generally cools global temperatures, while ENSO-neutral conditions occur when neither phase dominates.

Adding to concerns, the WMO expects the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), where the western Indian Ocean becomes warmer than average while waters near Indonesia cool. Scientists say the combination of El Niño and a positive IOD can intensify regional climate extremes, particularly across the Indian Ocean basin, increasing the likelihood of prolonged droughts, destructive floods and severe wildfire conditions.

The WMO forecast wetter-than-normal conditions over East Africa, southern Europe, Central Asia, western North America and southeastern South America, raising flood risks. In contrast, Australia, Indonesia, parts of Southeast Asia, Central America, northern South America and southern Africa are likely to experience below-normal rainfall, heightening concerns over drought, water shortages and forest fires.

For India, El Niño remains a closely monitored climate driver because of its historical association with weaker southwest monsoon rainfall. Although not every El Niño leads to drought, deficient rainfall can reduce reservoir inflows, strain irrigation, affect groundwater recharge and lower yields of crops such as rice, pulses, soybean, sugarcane and cotton. Economists also warn that poor agricultural output could push up food inflation and increase electricity demand as prolonged heat drives higher cooling requirements. However, meteorologists note that the simultaneous development of a positive IOD could partially offset monsoon deficits in some regions.

Scientists caution that the current event is unfolding against a backdrop of record marine heatwaves, making its impacts potentially more severe than past El Niño episodes. While El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon, human-induced global warming is amplifying its effects by making heatwaves hotter, heavy rainfall more intense and droughts more prolonged. Marine ecosystems could also face widespread coral bleaching, declining fish stocks and harmful algal blooms.

The WMO said seasonal climate forecasts provide governments with valuable lead time to strengthen heat action plans, flood and drought preparedness, water resource management, agricultural planning, wildfire response and early warning systems. With most international climate models indicating that El Niño is likely to persist through late 2026 and possibly into early 2027, the agency urged countries to use the warning to enhance resilience against increasingly frequent and severe climate extremes.