Why Is Iran Hitting US Bases Across West Asia But Leaving Israel Untouched?

Iran’s attacks on US military bases across West Asia are revealing a strategy built around numbers: launch ballistic missiles and waves of drones, stretch American air defences, and force Washington to spend enormously to defeat relatively inexpensive weapons.

In the latest escalation, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, and Army launched coordinated missile and drone attacks against US linked positions in Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, the UAE and Iraq’s Erbil region. Iran said the strikes were retaliation for fresh US attacks on southern Iran. Tehran claimed attacks on Al Dhafra and Al Minhad in the UAE and Sheikh Isa Air Base in Bahrain, while the IRGC claimed strikes against US positions at Kuwait’s Ali Al Salem Air Base and elsewhere. Several of these damage claims remain independently unverified.

The attacks followed a US campaign against Iranian military targets. Iranian officials also accused Washington of hitting a wedding in southern Iran, killing civilians. The US said it targeted military infrastructure and does not deliberately strike civilians.

Iran's drone arsenal includes the Shahed 136, but Tehran is also deploying the larger Arash family. The Arash 2 is substantially heavier than the Shahed 136 and is designed to carry a large explosive payload over long distances. Iran describes such weapons as capable of reconnaissance and suppression of enemy air defences, allowing them to target radars and air defence systems.

The exact number of Arash 2 drones Iran possesses is not publicly known, and claims of tens of thousands in its inventory or production of thousands every month should therefore be treated cautiously.

But Iran does not need every drone to hit its target.

Its advantage comes from the swarm.

A salvo can combine ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and one way attack drones travelling at different speeds and altitudes. This forces defenders to identify and prioritise multiple threats simultaneously. A slower drone that survives while air defences concentrate on ballistic missiles can still reach a target.

Iran has claimed that its drones damaged or destroyed American radar systems, aircraft and air defence equipment at several bases, including facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and Iraq. Reports of a US P 8 aircraft being destroyed, a Patriot system being hit and extensive damage to US facilities have circulated, but these individual claims have not all been independently confirmed.

The broader danger, however, is real.

The United States and its regional partners have demonstrated a formidable ability to intercept Iranian weapons. US Central Command says the integrated Middle East air defence network has intercepted more than 6,000 one way attack drones and over 1,500 ballistic missiles during the wider operation.

But interception creates another problem: economics.

Iran can launch comparatively cheap drones while the defender may have to employ sophisticated interceptor missiles, aircraft and radar systems. Even when the United States wins tactically, Tehran can try to make every defensive engagement expensive.

Washington is responding with new technology. The US Air Force has been experimenting with machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve the detection and defeat of drone threats.

This also helps explain why Iran has so far avoided making Israel the centre of its latest retaliation.

Israel is Iran's principal regional enemy, but directly attacking Israel could trigger another Israeli assault on Iranian territory. Israel has a sophisticated, multi-layered air defence and intelligence network, meaning Tehran must calculate not only whether it can launch an attack, but what the Israeli response would be.

Every Iranian strike on Israel could therefore trigger an Israeli counterstrike, followed by another Iranian attack and deeper US involvement.

Meanwhile, Iran's missile forces are themselves under pressure. Repeated attacks have targeted launch infrastructure, production facilities and military capabilities, meaning Tehran must balance immediate retaliation against preserving its longer term arsenal.

And then comes Russia.

A Financial Times investigation has revealed that Moscow has secretly helped Iran develop supersonic cruise missile technology under a programme codenamed C430L. The project began in 2023 and involved Russia's state arms exporter Rosoboronexport and major missile manufacturer NPO Mashinostroenia.

The most important part is that Russia is reportedly not simply handing Iran finished missiles. Russian specialists have been helping Tehran develop the technology itself, including a ramjet propulsion system capable of sustaining flight at several times the speed of sound. Russian engineers reportedly analysed Iranian flight test data and examined problems involving fuel systems, combustion stability, air intakes and engine nozzles. A delegation of about two dozen specialists was also proposed for technical consultations in Iran in 2025.

A ramjet has no conventional compressor with moving blades. Instead, it uses the missile's forward speed to compress incoming air before combustion. A rocket booster is required to get it moving fast enough for the ramjet to function.

That makes the technology extremely difficult to master.

If Iran eventually develops an operational supersonic anti-ship missile, the implications for American warships in the Persian Gulf could be enormous. A faster, low flying and difficult to predict weapon would compress the reaction time available to a carrier strike group and its layered defences.