Trump's Iran War Options Narrow After Midterms: Will He Strike A Deal Or Attack Again?

Donald Trump may have suffered a midterm humiliation, Democrats may have taken Congress and MAGA may be fighting itself, but Iran appears to be having the time of its life. Tehran claims to have shot down 56 American MQ-9 Reaper drones and captured two US-made LUCAS kamikaze drones, weapons developed by reverse-engineering Iran's own Shahed technology. So, while Iranian Shaheds are wreaking havoc across the Gulf, their American knock-offs are reportedly being captured.

Trump thought months of fighting would force Tehran to surrender. Instead, Iran claims American drones are falling from its skies. At least two MQ-9 Reapers, reportedly worth $30-50 million each, were allegedly shot down over the Strait of Hormuz in the latest incidents. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) released footage on November 3, apparently recorded from a missile's camera as it struck an MQ-9. On November 5, it claimed another downing and released an infrared image.

Iran is not stopping at shooting down drones. It has released footage of two nearly intact LUCAS drones that it claims to have captured. Iranian soldiers have been posing with the American machines, clicking pictures and even stomping on them as though they were trophies.

LUCAS, or Low-Cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System, is a one-way attack drone modelled on Iran's Shahed-136. The US developed it after studying a damaged Iranian drone airframe. LUCAS reportedly has a range of around 800 kilometres, compared with nearly 2,500 kilometres for the Shahed-136. It can also use Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink network for guidance. Iranian officials say they will examine the captured drones, including their flight paths, potentially revealing where they were launched from.

While Iranian soldiers posed with captured American hardware, Tehran also turned its attention to Trump's politics. A billboard unveiled before the midterms depicted the US president behind bars. Another massive poster following the Republican defeat featured Trump, Benjamin Netanyahu, and JD Vance. America may have the world's most powerful military, but Iran is trying to turn Trump's war into a meme fest and shatter the image of American invincibility.

Trump remains president and commander-in-chief, despite the Republican midterm setback. The newly elected Congress takes office on January 3, 2027, meaning Republicans retain control until then. Even afterwards, Democrats cannot automatically stop military strikes. The president has considerable authority to order military operations, although Congress retains powers over war authorisation, funding and oversight.

Trump now faces three broad choices. The first is renewed military action. He could target Pickaxe Mountain, where an underground Iranian nuclear facility is believed to be located. Conventional strikes are another possibility. Trump could claim victory by declaring the site destroyed, much as he claimed US strikes had obliterated Iran's nuclear programme during the 2025 12-day war. Yet the nuclear issue has returned less than a year later. Neither option guarantees Iran's surrender or the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The second option is diplomacy. Qatar is pushing to restart US-Iran negotiations, hoping to create conditions for a sustainable agreement. But Trump may have to make concessions, something that could be portrayed as weakness after his midterm humiliation. Iran, meanwhile, is already presenting the Republican defeat as a victory for its people.

The third option is continued economic pressure. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly favours maintaining sanctions and the naval blockade in the hope of forcing Tehran to surrender. But ordinary Iranians could bear much of the economic suffering.

Iran says it is prepared for all three possibilities and trusts neither Republicans nor Democrats, particularly Trump. With the next move resting on the US president, will he listen to the message voters delivered in the midterms and negotiate an end to the war? Or will he bomb Iran again to save face, risking another humanitarian and cost-of-living crisis?