Trump Effect? Quebec Separatists Delay Independence Referendum Until 2029

Quebec separatist leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said his party will not hold a referendum on independence from Canada while Donald Trump remains US president, pushing any vote to after January 20, 2029.

The Parti Québécois (PQ) leader made the announcement on Tuesday as Quebec prepares for its provincial election, scheduled for October 5. The PQ is out of power but is currently leading in polls, raising the possibility that it could form the next government.

Plamondon said a PQ government would still hold a sovereignty referendum during its first term if elected. But he said the vote must wait until after Trump leaves office. He argued that Quebec’s future needs a calm debate and should not be shaped by US political turmoil.

“This unpredictability of the American administration will harm our process as well as the quality of the debate on our future as a nation,” he said.

Trump’s tariffs on Canada and his repeated comments about Canada becoming the 51st US state have made the issue more difficult for Quebec separatists. The rhetoric has strengthened Canadian nationalism, with some French-speaking Quebecers seeing staying in Canada as a safer choice. Political scientist Daniel Béland said holding a vote while Trump remains president would be particularly risky.

The decision has also drawn criticism. Quebec Premier Christine Fréchette called the plan irresponsible, saying it could add more political uncertainty to an already uncertain economic situation. Conservative Party of Quebec leader Éric Duhaime also questioned the move.

Despite the PQ’s strong position in polls, support for independence remains around 30 per cent, showing that party support does not automatically mean support for separation.

Quebecers rejected independence in referendums in 1980 and 1995. The 1995 vote was decided by less than one percentage point.

Quebec has about 9.1 million people and is around 80 per cent French-speaking. It already has wide powers, including its own income tax system, immigration policies and laws giving French priority over English.

The separatist debate is also growing in Alberta. Voters there will decide on October 19 whether to take steps towards a binding independence referendum.

For now, the PQ is keeping its independence promise alive while taking the Trump factor out of the immediate debate. If it wins in October, Quebec’s sovereignty question could return to the centre of Canadian politics after 2029.