Shipping Costs Surge 130% Since February, India's Trade Grows 23%

Global container freight rates have surged 130 per cent since February 2026, rising to 4,500 in October as tensions in West Asia disrupt shipping routes, even as India's container-based export-import trade continues to expand, according to brokerage firm Jefferies.

Freight rates increased from around 2,500 in February, reversing a decline that had continued through much of 2025 and early 2026. The latest rebound has renewed concerns over shipping costs, supply-chain disruptions and their potential impact on businesses dependent on international cargo movement.

However, the outlook for freight rates could change as shipping companies increasingly return to the Suez Canal and Red Sea route. Industry data cited by shipping publication Seatrade Maritime showed that weekly container capacity transiting the canal averaged 753,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) during the first two weeks of October, more than half the corresponding 2023 level of 1.457 million TEUs.

The recovery follows widespread diversions around the Cape of Good Hope after Houthi attacks threatened commercial vessels in the Red Sea. Rerouting had increased global container shipping demand by approximately 10 per cent, according to shipping association BIMCO. The return of vessels could release capacity and put downward pressure on freight rates, although security risks and port congestion remain concerns. A full-scale return to the Suez route is expected by the first quarter of 2027, according to shipping consultancy Linerlytica.

India's containerisable trade grew 23 per cent year-on-year in September, with exports rising 22 per cent and imports increasing 23 per cent, Jefferies reported. Exports to the United States climbed 48 per cent, while shipments to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia declined by 12–15 per cent.

Indian port traffic also recorded mixed trends. Cargo volumes at major ports increased 13 per cent year-on-year in September, while non-major ports registered a 1 per cent decline. Among non-major ports, Gujarat recorded 3 per cent growth, while Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu reported increases of 6–7 per cent. Ports along India's eastern coast experienced a sharp decline in volumes.

Meanwhile, elevated fuel costs, persistent congestion and continuing geopolitical tensions could limit any immediate decline in freight rates. Industry analysts have also warned that renewed security incidents could reverse progress towards restoring regular shipping services through the Red Sea.