Russia’s Next Move? Poland Warns Of ‘Accidental’ Drone Strikes On NATO
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that Russia could launch drone or missile strikes on European countries supporting Ukraine, including Poland, and then claim the attacks were accidental to make NATO hesitate before responding.
Addressing parliament on Thursday, Tusk said intelligence assessments pointed to a risk that Russian drones or other projectiles could enter countries on NATO’s eastern flank and cause destruction. He said Russia could then describe such incidents as accidents, creating uncertainty over whether NATO should respond.
According to Tusk, such a tactic would be aimed at testing NATO’s unity and weakening its willingness to act together. By presenting a deliberate strike as an accident, Russia could create divisions among members over whether the incident was intentional and what response was justified.
The stakes are high because Poland is a NATO member. Under Article 5, an armed attack on one NATO member is treated as an attack against the alliance as a whole. A deliberate Russian strike on Polish territory could therefore trigger NATO’s collective-defence mechanism, although each member decides what assistance or action it would provide.
Tusk also warned that Russia is increasingly using jet-powered drones, which fly faster and higher and can be harder for air-defence systems to detect and intercept.
His warning comes amid several incidents near NATO territory. A Russian drone recently struck infrastructure in Ukraine near the Polish border, while NATO fighter jets shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace. European governments have also accused Russia of involvement in drone incursions and other hybrid activity. Moscow has rejected such allegations.
Tusk said Russia was increasingly targeting border crossings linking Ukraine with its European neighbours, with four incidents reported on Poland’s Ukrainian border in the past week and others near Moldova. These routes are vital for Western military and humanitarian supplies reaching Ukraine.
He warned that Russia aims to damage Ukraine’s economy and logistics, with intensified attacks expected on six major Ukrainian cities during the coming winter.
Tusk travelled to Kyiv to meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss countering newer drone threats and possible further sanctions against Russia.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said major progress had been made towards establishing a US Army base in Poland, potentially strengthening the American military presence on NATO’s eastern flank. Poland has long sought a permanent US military presence as a security guarantee against Russia.