Russia-Ukraine War: Is Moscow Saving Missiles For A Winter Assault On Ukraine?

Russia-Ukraine War fears are growing as Moscow appears to be changing its aerial tactics, with Ukraine facing waves of faster drones while concerns mount that Russia could be conserving ballistic missiles for a potentially devastating winter campaign against its power and heating infrastructure.

Russia launched more than 200 drones and multiple missiles at Ukrainian regions overnight, killing at least four people and injuring others, Ukrainian officials said Tuesday. The attacks damaged homes, businesses and industrial facilities. Moscow said it targeted military-industrial, fuel and energy infrastructure. Russia also claimed its forces shot down 297 Ukrainian drones over 14 Russian regions and Crimea.

Ukraine responded with another long-range strike on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukrainian special forces said drones hit the Kuibyshev oil refinery in Samara, triggering a major fire. Regional Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said one person was killed and four wounded. Kyiv said the Rosneft-owned refinery, which produces gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products, had also been targeted in June.

The latest attacks come as Ukraine reports a sharp rise in Russia’s use of jet-powered Geran drones. Reuters reported that Moscow launched about 2,800 such drones in August, up from roughly 350 in June. Ukrainian officials estimate Russia can now produce around 3,000 jet-powered drones each month. Faster than older propeller-driven drones, the newer systems are harder to intercept and can force Ukraine to keep its air defences under constant pressure.

At the same time, Ukraine is concerned Russia may be using fewer ballistic missiles now to preserve them for the colder months. Strikes on power plants and heating infrastructure could have a far greater impact during winter, potentially disrupting electricity, heating and water supplies when temperatures plunge. Kyiv is repairing generating capacity, strengthening backup power and stockpiling transformers, but air-defence missiles remain in limited supply.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is seeking more US-made Patriot interceptor missiles before winter. He has also backed the development of cheaper interceptors designed specifically to counter Russia’s faster drones. The European Union has provided €3.3 billion in defence-related funding, including support for drones and missiles.

Zelenskyy arrived in New York for the UN General Assembly and is due to meet US President Donald Trump. He is expected to seek additional Patriot support and discuss proposals for a mutual halt to attacks on energy infrastructure and a moratorium on attacks affecting Black Sea shipping. French President Emmanuel Macron said he discussed the proposals with Trump and announced additional air-defence support for Ukraine.

The immediate battlefield remains largely static, but the air war is evolving rapidly. For Ukraine, the concern is that Russia’s drone surge could exhaust its defences now while a stockpile of ballistic missiles could pose a much greater threat when winter arrives.