No Exit, Just Adjustment: India Tweaks Russian Oil Dependence

India’s energy story today is not about cutting off Russian oil, it is about reshaping dependence . The country still meets 85–90% of its crude oil demand through imports , with total inflows averaging 4.7–5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) , making supply security a constant priority.

After the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war, India sharply increased purchases of discounted Russian crude. Since then, the value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have crossed €144 billion (over $150 billion) , with 2024 purchases alone pegged at $52–67 billion . At the peak of this shift, Russia supplied around 35–40% of India’s oil imports, with volumes rising above 2 million bpd .

But that peak has passed. Recent trends show Russian imports easing to roughly 1.2–1.4 million bpd , bringing Moscow’s share down to the mid-20% range . The drop does not signal a ban or political break; instead, it reflects diversification . Indian refiners have stepped up buying from West Asian producers, African exporters, Latin America, and the United States , spreading risk and strengthening bargaining power.

This shift has created two parallel narratives. The Office of the United States Trade Representative describes India as “winding down” Russian oil, aligning with U.S. diplomatic messaging. Meanwhile, Indian officials maintain a consistent line: oil will be sourced from wherever it is cheapest, reliable, and not under sanctions . Both views capture different angles of the same reality. Russian crude is still flowing, but it no longer dominates.

Economically, the Russian discounts mattered. Estimates suggest India saved more than ₹1.1 trillion (around $14 billion) over nearly three years by buying below global benchmark prices. Those savings helped soften the impact of high international oil costs.

The bigger picture is pragmatic rather than political. India is not replacing one supplier with another; it is rebalancing its crude basket . Russia remains important, but the strategy now emphasizes flexibility, multiple supply routes, and resilience ensuring energy security in an increasingly uncertain global market.