Nepal at the crossroads - After the storm, an uncertain calm

Kathmandu is breathing a cautious sigh of relief. Weeks of furious street protests have ebbed, and Nepal has a new leader, one who embodies both symbolism and risk. Sushila Karki, the nation’s first female Chief Justice, has now been sworn in as its first female Prime Minister. Her elevation carries rare consensus: Gen-Z protesters, senior politicians, legal luminaries, and even President Paudel have rallied behind her. Yet the questions that hang in the Himalayan air are formidable. How long can she hold the fragile coalition together? Can she safeguard peace and security while addressing the deep grievances of Nepal’s restless youth?

To grasp the scale of Nepal’s challenge, the world must first understand why a relatively small democracy erupted with such force. Nepal’s democratic journey is barely seventeen years old, but in that short span it has witnessed fourteen different governments. The revolving-door politics, combined with endemic corruption, has left citizens disillusioned. Only months ago, some demonstrators were openly calling for a return to monarchy, a startling demand in a republic born from an anti-royalist movement. Although those calls faded quickly, the energy of Gen-Z protests toppled key leaders and reminded Kathmandu’s elites that public patience has limits.

The immediate spark was an unexpected one: a sweeping ban on social media. The government blocked 26 platforms including Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp cutting off millions of Nepalese from their primary means of communication. Roughly 55 percent of the population has internet access, and half of them actively use social media. For a plugged-in generation aged 14 to 28, the blackout was intolerable. Already frustrated by corruption and nepotism, “nepo babies” became a rallying cry; they flooded the streets demanding not only digital freedom but an end to political privilege. On September 8 the protests began; by the next day they had intensified into clashes that shook parliament and even targeted politicians’ homes, a level of fury unseen even during the monarchy.

Underlying grievances run deeper than a ban. Former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli and several predecessors face serious corruption allegations. Transparency International ranks Nepal among Asia’s most graft-ridden nations. The economy, still recovering from the COVID-19 tourism collapse, provides too few jobs or living wages for young people. Chronic instability scares away investment and slows industrial growth. As a result, migration has become a national escape valve: more than 3.1 million Nepalese now live abroad, while students increasingly choose Australia or Europe for higher education. Unemployment and stagnant living standards pushed citizens into the streets and ultimately brought down the government.

The appointment of Sushila Karki marks a hopeful new chapter, but it also sets the stage for high-stakes governance. If the new administration can meet the aspirations of Gen-Z protesters and the wider public, Nepal may yet stabilize. Failure, however, could trigger another eruption at any moment. India, Nepal’s closest neighbor and historical partner, cannot afford complacency. The two nations share a 1,750-kilometre open border across five Indian states Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh and deep cultural, economic and familial ties. Nepalese citizens work freely in India; tens of thousands serve as Gurkha soldiers in the Indian Army; and millions of Indian pilgrims travel annually to Nepal’s holy sites.

For India, Nepal’s trajectory is strategically vital. During the monarchy, Kathmandu typically tilted toward New Delhi. Democratic governments have occasionally leaned toward Beijing, but many analysts note that no Nepalese leader can survive long without some degree of Indian support. Recent crises in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have already tested India’s regional diplomacy. Nepal’s unrest is different: the emotional bonds between the two peoples make any upheaval more intimate and more unpredictable. That is why New Delhi watched with alarm as the protests flared especially since former Prime Minister Oli was scheduled to visit India within days of his resignation.

Despite the turbulence, the protests carried no anti-India slogans, and Karki herself studied in India and has spoken warmly of bilateral ties. For now, relations remain stable, and experts urge India to maintain friendly engagement while closely monitoring events. The rivalry between India and China for influence in Nepal continues, but current India-China relations are relatively calm, reducing the risk of immediate geopolitical shocks.

Yet it would be naïve to assume the danger has passed. Whether Nepalese citizens will be satisfied with the fall of their leaders or reignite demands for monarchy remains unclear. The streets may look quiet today, but the underlying frustrations of corruption, unemployment, political paralysis remain unresolved. The next few months will determine whether Nepal steps toward lasting stability or tumbles into another cycle of unrest. For India and the wider region, vigilance is not optional. The Himalayan nation’s future is still being written, and its lessons will echo far beyond the mountains.