Middle East war, Day 9: Iran picks a new supreme leader, America picks more targets

The smoke rising over Tehran on Sunday was not just from burning oil, it was the smoke of a war that has stopped pretending to have an exit. Nine days after the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury , what they called a "targeted campaign," the conflict has consumed Lebanon, shaken Gulf capitals, disrupted global aviation, collapsed oil markets, and dragged Russia, China and Europe into its orbit. Day 9 brought no relief, only escalation.

Israeli jets struck Iran's oil storage depots and refining facilities for the first time , lighting up Tehran's night sky and sending blackened rain falling over the capital by morning. Israel has now hit over 400 targets inside Iran, with the $3.7 billion operation backed further by a fresh $151 million US arms sale to Israel , Trump ordering defense manufacturers to quadruple production, and a third carrier strike group, the USS George H.W. Bush , joining two others in the Persian Gulf. The IDF also destroyed an underground Tehran bunker originally built for Khamenei, now housing Iran's surviving military commanders. The human cost is staggering, over 1,332 dead in Iran , 217 in Lebanon, and the Iranian Health Ministry confirming 200 children among the casualties . Human Rights Watch has called for a war crimes investigation into the bombing of a primary school in southern Iran that killed 160 people, with Al Jazeera finding the strike was likely deliberate.

In the clerical city of Qom, the Assembly of Experts gathered under fire to elect Iran's next Supreme Leader , with an explosion heard in the city mid-deliberation. Assembly member Mirbagheri confirmed a "firm and unanimous opinion" had been reached, though the name remains undisclosed. Trump wasted no time interfering, ruling out Mojtaba Khamenei, the slain Supreme Leader's son, dismissing him as a "lightweight" and vowing to personally influence the outcome, an extraordinary intrusion into a sovereign nation's most sacred institutional moment.

Iran's leadership is visibly fracturing. President Pezeshkian apologised to Gulf neighbours Saturday and promised restraint, only to walk it back Sunday, claiming his words were "misinterpreted by the enemy seeking to sow division." The apology meant nothing on the ground, as Iranian drones and missiles struck Kuwait's airport fuel depot, Bahrain's water desalination plant , and triggered interceptions across Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. A Dubai resident was killed by falling debris. Iran's top national security official Ali Larijani warned the US would "pay the price," to which Trump responded, "I have no idea who he is, I couldn't care less." Iran confirmed the Strait of Hormuz remains open but threatened to target any US or Israeli vessels attempting passage, with ships carrying roughly 20 million barrels of oil a day paralysed, sending Brent crude surging 27% in a single week. When asked about tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve , currently holding over 415 million barrels , Trump waved it off. "We have a lot of oil. That will get healed very quickly," he said.

The shadow war is as alarming as the real one. US intelligence officials believe Russia has been providing Iran with targeting information to hit US military personnel and assets, including the drone strike in Kuwait that killed six American Army reservists whose dignified transfer Trump attended Saturday at Dover Air Force Base. When confronted, Trump was dismissive, saying "if they are getting information, it is not helping them much," then deflected by pointing to US intelligence sharing with Ukraine, asking "wouldn't they say we do it against them?" The response drew sharp bipartisan condemnation , with Republican Rep. Don Bacon calling the administration's softness toward Moscow "appalling" and Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu accusing the Treasury of "traitorous conduct" for lifting oil sanctions on Russia while Moscow helps Iran target American troops. Compounding the controversy, the US Treasury granted India a 30-day waiver to keep buying Russian crude, following Trump's tariff cuts on India after Modi agreed to reduce reliance on cheap Russian oil. India meanwhile allowed an Iranian naval vessel to dock at Kochi and evacuated 52,000 of its nationals from the region, refusing to take sides.

In Lebanon, the war's toll on civilians has reached a devastating threshold. Lebanon says almost 400 people have been killed in one week of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, with 83 of those killed being children , a figure that has drawn fresh international horror. Hezbollah confirmed clashes with Israeli troops in the Bekaa Valley , wounding eight soldiers, as an Israeli strike on a Beirut hotel killed four people and wounded ten others. Europe is being dragged in whether it wants to be or not, with RAF Typhoons deploying to Qatar and Iran warning that European nations assisting the campaign could become "legitimate targets." China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for an immediate halt to military operations, warning the "flames of war" risk consuming the entire region.

Trump declared the war would continue "a little while" but Washington was not looking to settle, ending only when Iran "cries uncle." He refused to rule out ground troops . Netanyahu vowed "many more surprises" as fresh strikes lit up Iranian skies. A leaked US National Intelligence Council report delivered the most sobering verdict of all, concluding that even a full-scale assault makes regime change in Iran "unlikely," and that Iran's fragmented opposition seizing power is equally "unlikely." Nine days in, 330,000 displaced , oil markets in turmoil, a new Supreme Leader chosen under fire, and still, devastatingly, no plan for Day 10.