Markets See Modest Monday Lift as Hormuz Hopes Build, Oil Falls 5% as Crude Drops Below $100 a Barrel

Global markets posted modest gains on Monday after crude oil slipped below $100 a barrel, as comments from US officials hinted at possible progress in negotiations with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. The move offered some relief, though few on the Street treated it as a turning point.

The Sensex added 1,074 points, or 1.42%, to close at 76,489, while the Nifty50 ended 312 points higher at 24,032. Nifty Auto outperformed with gains of over 2%, and banking, realty, and consumer durables also closed in positive territory.

Globally, S&P 500 futures rose 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.4%, with US cash markets closed for Memorial Day. Japan's Nikkei climbed 2.85% to 65,142 and Europe's Stoxx 600 rose about 1.4%, as easing energy prices lent support.

Brent crude fell 4.8% to $98.52 , and WTI dropped to $91.76, welcome news for India, where elevated oil prices weigh on household budgets, widen the current account deficit, and stoke inflation.

The catalyst was President Trump's weekend remark that a peace framework with Tehran was "largely negotiated," including provisions for reopening Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil and LNG flows. The strait has been effectively closed since the Iran conflict began on February 28.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie have estimated prices could fall toward $80 if a deal lands by June , against a worst-case of $200 if Hormuz stays shut through year-end .

Still, the market reaction stayed measured. Similar signals have surfaced before without follow-through, and rising US bond yields added to the caution. Monday's gains reflected a brief exhale not a verdict.