Lockheed Martin pitches C-130J, India nears transport aircraft decision, deliveries by 2028

As India moves closer to finalising a long-pending programme to procure 70-80 military transport aircraft for the Indian Air Force (IAF), US aerospace major Lockheed Martin has stepped up its pitch for the C-130J Super Hercules , offering local manufacturing in India and faster induction timelines as key differentiators.

The transport aircraft programme aimed at replacing the IAF’s ageing AN-32 and IL-76 fleets is expected to be finalised in the second half of 2026, with deliveries beginning around 2028 and full induction completed by 2034, defence analysts estimate.

The deal is estimated to be worth $8-10 billion , depending on the aircraft selected, the level of indigenous manufacturing, and the scope of long-term maintenance and logistics packages.

Although platforms like the C-130J Super Hercules are already in production, analysts caution that India’s emphasis on Make-in-India and domestic defence manufacturing will add time to the induction process. Any winning bidder will be required to establish production lines, supplier ecosystems and maintenance facilities in India, a factor likely to push timelines beyond those seen in earlier direct import deals.

Lockheed Martin, which has partnered with Tata Advanced Systems, has said it is willing to establish the first global production hub for the C-130J Super Hercules outside the United States in India. Brazil’s Embraer , offering the KC-390 Millennium , and Airbus Defence and Space, pitching the A-400M Atlas , are also competing for the programme.

Analysts say that while the first few aircraft could be delivered in fly-away condition, bulk production would only begin after local manufacturing stabilises, making 2028 a realistic induction timeline.

The projected transport aircraft timeline broadly mirrors India’s experience with the Rafale fighter programme .

India signed the contract for 36 Rafale fighter jets for the IAF in September 2016. The first aircraft was delivered in 2019, and all 36 were inducted by December 2022, taking just over six years from contract signing to final delivery.

That deal was valued at approximately €7.87 billion (around $8.5-9 billion) for 36 aircraft, including weapons, simulators, training and long-term support.

In comparison, the recently approved Indian Navy Rafale-M deal involves 26 carrier-borne fighters at an estimated cost of ₹63,000 crore (around $7-7.5 billion) , reflecting higher per-aircraft costs due to naval modifications and shipborne integration. Deliveries for the naval Rafales are expected to begin around 2028.

While the transport aircraft programme involves more than double the number of platforms compared to the original Rafale deal, its total value is expected to be in a similar range due to the significantly lower per-unit cost of transport aircraft.

India’s transport aircraft modernisation comes amid a widening regional imbalance.

Pakistan operates a relatively small and ageing transport fleet, largely centred on older C-130B/E/H Hercules aircraft, with limited modernisation underway and no comparable large-scale replacement programme announced.

China , by contrast, has rapidly expanded its airlift capability over the past decade. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force operates a growing fleet of Y-20 Kunpeng strategic transport aircraft, along with dozens of Y-9 and Y-8 medium transports, giving it a significant advantage in rapid troop movement and logistics, particularly along its western and southern theatres.

Defence analysts estimate that delays in replacing India’s AN-32 fleet have already begun to affect operational flexibility, especially in high-altitude and forward-area logistics, underscoring the urgency of the transport aircraft programme.

Once finalised, the transport aircraft deal will rank among India’s most consequential airlift modernisation efforts, reshaping the IAF’s logistics capability while anchoring a long-term manufacturing footprint in the country. For Lockheed Martin, a win would deepen its industrial presence in India; for the IAF, it would mark a long-awaited generational upgrade in tactical airlift capability.