Labour stronghold at risk amid Epstein files fallout for UK Prime Minister

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is confronting renewed political pressure as a key by-election in northwest England threatens to deepen divisions within his Labour Party following controversy linked to newly released Jeffrey Epstein files.

The by-election in Gorton and Denton, Greater Manchester , scheduled for Thursday with results expected early Friday, is the first major electoral test for Starmer since Labour’s sweeping victory in the July 2024 general election . Once regarded as a Labour stronghold for more than a century, the constituency has become a three-way contest involving Labour, the anti-immigration Reform UK party and the Green Party. Opinion polls suggest a narrow and unpredictable outcome.

Starmer’s leadership has already been weakened by sluggish economic growth, continued pressure on household budgets, and policy reversals on welfare and immigration. Discontent has also grown among students and minority communities over the government’s cautious stance on the Gaza conflict and its shift toward centrist policies.Political tensions escalated last month after U.S. authorities released documents related to convicted financier Jeffrey Epstein. The files reportedly included emails involving former UK ambassador to Washington Peter Mandelson , allegedly indicating that sensitive government information was shared with Epstein more than a decade ago. Mandelson has not been accused of sexual wrongdoing but was questioned by police this week and released on bail while investigations continue.

The revelations revived criticism of Starmer’s judgment in appointing Mandelson despite knowledge of his past association with Epstein. Senior Labour figures publicly questioned the decision, and the prime minister’s chief of staff and communications director resigned amid mounting internal pressure. Public reaction has included protests and growing demands for transparency and accountability.

Analysts warn that a defeat in Gorton and Denton would intensify calls within Labour for a leadership challenge, especially ahead of elections for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and English local councils in May . Even a narrow Labour victory may offer only temporary relief, with larger electoral tests likely to shape Starmer’s political future.With the next general election not due until 2029, Starmer’s most immediate threat now appears to come from dissent within his own party rather than from opposition rivals.