Is Nitish Kumar’s Long Reign in Bihar Nearing Its End?

For two decades, Nitish Kumar has been a constant presence in Bihar’s power corridors outlasting allies, opponents, and shifting coalitions with a political agility that few in India can match. Whether partnering with the BJP, aligning with the RJD and Congress, or pivoting back again, Nitish has displayed a singular ability to hold on to the chief minister’s chair. But the 2025 assembly election may finally test the limits of that strategy. Despite being the joint candidate of the BJP–JD(U) alliance, the signals emerging from the campaign trail suggest that the Bharatiya Janata Party is no longer inclined to sacrifice its own ambitions for Nitish’s continuance as chief minister.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent rally in Purnea set tongues wagging when he conspicuously avoided naming Nitish as the alliance’s CM face. This omission is not a minor slip; in Bihar’s heavily coded political theatre, it is a message. In past elections, even when the BJP won far more seats than the JD(U), the party yielded the top post to Nitish out of respect for coalition arithmetic. In 2020, the BJP secured a commanding lead but allowed Nitish to remain chief minister. Earlier, when Nitish abruptly broke with the BJP to rejoin the RJD–Congress “Mahagathbandhan,” none of his new allies contested his claim to the job. Such deference has been the hallmark of Nitish’s career. But this time, the BJP appears to be preparing Bihar’s voters for a different outcome.

The reasons are not difficult to discern. Anti-incumbency is running high. Nitish’s constant realignments—he has changed partners more often than any major Indian politician of his era—have eroded the trust of voters who once hailed him as the architect of a “new Bihar.” Corruption allegations against the state bureaucracy, persistent unemployment, and uneven development have further deepened public frustration. After nearly twenty years in power, even a leader with a clean personal reputation cannot escape the fatigue that accumulates around long incumbency. BJP strategists, sensing this mood, are determined to expand their own footprint rather than once again play second fiddle.

This election is especially crucial for the BJP. The party has invested unprecedented resources in the state, deploying Modi himself for an intensive campaign and unveiling a caste census and selective GST reforms widely interpreted as aimed at Bihar’s electorate. BJP leaders view the contest not just as a regional battle but as a national test of strength following Rahul Gandhi’s charges of “vote theft” during the Lok Sabha polls. By winning decisively in Bihar, the party hopes to silence opposition allegations and tighten its grip on the Hindi heartland.

The emerging plan seems clear: secure a majority with allies, form the government with a BJP chief minister, and offer Nitish a prestigious role in the NDA at the Centre. His name has already surfaced in discussions for key cabinet positions and even the vice presidency after Jagdeep Dhankhar’s resignation. While such moves were postponed to avoid distracting voters, few doubt that a national assignment awaits Nitish if he agrees to step aside in Patna.

For Nitish, the choices are narrowing. No matter how many seats the JD(U) wins, the arithmetic that once guaranteed him the chief ministership no longer favors him. Twenty years ago, he embodied the hope of transforming Bihar from a byword for backwardness into a modern, developing state. To his credit, he did alter the trajectory: infrastructure improved, law-and-order strengthened, and governance standards rose compared to the Lalu-era chaos. Yet the very qualities that defined his rise—pragmatism, flexibility, an eye for survival now fuel the perception that he has lost his ideological compass.

Bihar’s voters are not blind to these contradictions. They acknowledge Nitish’s contribution to the state’s relative progress but are wary of his endless coalition maneuvers and administrative drift. The BJP, for its part, sees an opportunity to convert this fatigue into a historic breakthrough. Modi and Amit Shah are determined to “saffronise” the chief minister’s chair, not merely share it. Deputy chief ministerships and cabinet berths will no longer suffice; the party wants full control.

Still, Nitish is unlikely to rebel. His political future, paradoxically, depends on the same NDA he once spurned. With the prospect of a senior cabinet post or a constitutional office in Delhi, he has every incentive to remain a loyal partner. His immediate challenge is not to reclaim the CM’s chair but to rehabilitate his credibility after years of opportunistic alliances.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Bihar’s most enduring politician can once again rewrite the script—or whether this election marks the end of an era. Either way, the state that once placed boundless hopes in Nitish Kumar now seems ready to move beyond the long shadow of its “Sushasan Babu.”