ING Bank predicts low crude oil prices in 2026 amid rising global supply

ING Bank (Internationale Nederlanden Group), a leading global banking and financial services firm, has forecast that crude oil prices will remain subdued in 2026, driven by a growing global supply surplus.

The report highlights that the ongoing imbalance between oil supply and demand will weigh on prices throughout the year. A major factor is the decision by OPEC+ countries - a group consisting of the 13 OPEC members (including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Iran, and Nigeria) plus 10 non-OPEC allies such as Russia - to unwind production cuts faster than expected. (OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is an intergovernmental organization that coordinates oil production policies among its member countries to stabilize global oil markets.) In addition, non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Norway are also expected to increase output despite weak prices this year.

According to ING’s estimates, the global oil market could see a surplus of more than 2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 . While supply is expected to grow by 2.1 million b/d, demand growth is likely to remain modest at around 800,000 b/d, creating a significant gap that will keep prices under pressure.

Among the countries driving the 2026 oil surplus, Saudi Arabia and Russia are contributing the most by quickly reversing previous production cuts. Other OPEC+ members, including Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait, are also boosting output to maintain market share and maximize revenue. On the non-OPEC side, the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Norway are increasing production, aided by improved efficiency and lower extraction costs. Analysts said producers are keeping output high despite low prices to secure long-term customers, support national budgets, and strengthen their positions in the global market.

The global oil surplus is expected to continue throughout 2026, peaking in the first half of the year. Analysts said the oversupply will persist in every quarter, keeping global inventories high and maintaining downward pressure on prices. Oil rates may only start rising in late 2026 or 2027, when production slows, demand strengthens, or geopolitical developments reduce supply.

Geopolitical developments, particularly US (United States) sanctions on Russian oil , could significantly alter the 2026 outlook. If sanctions tighten and reduce Russian exports, the global surplus may shrink, potentially pushing crude prices higher. Conversely, if sanctions are eased or bypassed, Russia could maintain its supply, keeping the market oversupplied and prices subdued. Analysts say such developments represent a key upside or downside risk to ING Bank’s forecast of ICE Brent (Intercontinental Exchange Brent crude) averaging USD 57 per barrel next year.

ING Bank expects ICE Brent crude to average USD 57 per barrel in 2026, assuming Russian oil exports continue despite US sanctions on major producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil . The report also cautioned that any easing or tightening of sanctions could affect the price outlook.