India’s Wheat Production Remains Resilient Despite Weather Setbacks: Agri Ministry

India’s wheat production outlook for the 2025–26 crop season remains cautiously stable despite weather-related disruptions, with the government highlighting strong acreage, improved crop practices and robust procurement trends.

The wheat crop was sown across about 33.4 million hectares , higher than the previous year’s 32.8 million hectares, reflecting increased farmer participation encouraged by favourable soil moisture and assured procurement mechanisms. The crop season remained largely free from significant pest or disease outbreaks, while weed infestation was also reported to be low during critical growth stages.

However, the crop faced climatic stress during the later stages. Unusually high temperatures in February shortened the grain-filling period in some areas, while unseasonal rainfall and hailstorms during harvest caused localized damage across several major wheat-producing states. As a result, wheat production for 2025–26 is now expected to range between 110 million and 120 million tonnes , slightly above the 109.63 million tonnes produced in 2024–25 but below earlier official estimates of around 120.21 million tonnes .

Industry estimates, including projections from the Roller Flour Millers’ Federation of India , place output at around 110.65 million tonnes , accounting for weather-related losses.

Despite these challenges, several compensatory factors are expected to support overall production. The increase in acreage, greater adoption of high-yielding and climate-resilient varieties , and a higher varietal replacement rate are helping farmers mitigate climatic stress.

Procurement trends also point to strong production. The Centre has raised the national wheat procurement target by about 15 per cent to 34.5 million tonnes to ensure adequate government stocks and support farmers selling at the Minimum Support Price.

At the state level, procurement has accelerated. Madhya Pradesh’s procurement target has been increased from 78 lakh tonnes to 100 lakh tonnes , while major wheat-growing states continue to report strong arrivals in mandis.

The government has also approved additional wheat exports of 25 lakh metric tonnes to support farmer incomes and stabilise domestic markets.