India’s population seen stabilising by 2080 as fertility rate falls below replacement level
India's population is expected to stabilize by 2080 at 1.8 or 1.9 billion due to the dipping total fertility rate, which is currently below the replacement level at 1.9, an official said.
India is undergoing a rapid demographic transition, with the birth rate dropping sharply over the past two decades, he said.
It was noted that India’s TFR was 3.5 in 2000 and is recorded at 1.9 today, with the decline described as drastic, Indian Association for the Study of Population (IASP) general secretary Anil Chandran told PTI.
He said India's population is expected to peak at 1.8 or 1.9 billion by 2080, when growth is expected to stabilise.
It was stated that all estimates indicate India’s maximum population will be kept below two billion, Chandran added.
He attributed the fall in fertility primarily to increasing development and education levels. Increased female literacy, he said, has directly shaped decisions around marriage and childbearing, leading to smaller families.
Greater use of contraceptives and wider access to birth control have further accelerated the decline, he said.
It was said that better information is available to couples today and greater control is exercised by them over when and how many children are to be had, Chandran said.
He said that late marriages and growing economic opportunities especially for women pursuing careers have also significantly influenced reproductive choices.
It was observed that development is inversely linked to birth rates. It was noted that fertility levels above three are still recorded among illiterate groups, while among the educated, the TFR is found to range between 1.5 and 1.8, he said.
Citing Kerala's example, Chandran said the state achieved replacement-level fertility (2.1) between 1987 and 1989 and now has a TFR of around 1.5.
West Bengal's fertility rate has also seen a sharp fall. According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) Statistical Report 2023, the state's TFR has dropped to 1.3, down from 1.7 in 2013 a decline of nearly 18 per cent and well below the replacement level of 2.1. West Bengal now ranks among the lowest in the country, on par with Tamil Nadu and just above Delhi, while recording the lowest urban TFR and the second-lowest rural TFR nationally, he said.
The demographer noted that while birth rates are falling, life expectancy continues to rise due to improvements in healthcare.
It was pointed out that more people are living beyond 60, and new challenges of elderly care are being brought about, especially as younger people are seen migrating for work, he said, adding that solutions such as elderly day-care facilities are increasingly being discussed.
IASP, founded in 1971 and comprising around 1,100 demographers and population scientists, regularly deliberates on such issues with support from bodies including UNFPA, the Population Council and the Population Foundation of India.