India’s exports stay strong despite steep drop in shipments to US

India’s outward shipments have remained resilient in 2025 despite a sharp contraction in exports to the United States, its single-largest market, according to new data and analysis released on Saturday. A report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) said India’s exports to the US fell 28.5% between May and October 2025, dropping from USD 8.83 billion to USD 6.31 billion as a result of aggressive tariff hikes imposed by Washington. Duties on Indian goods rose from 10% in early April to 50% by late August, making them among the highest faced by any US trading partner.

The fall was felt across sectors, particularly labour-intensive categories such as textiles, garments, gems and jewellery, chemicals, seafood and auto components. Smartphones India’s largest export item to the US saw a steep 36% decline, while overall shipments of labour-heavy goods fell 31.2% during the five-month period.

Overall exports still expanded, signalling diversification

However, despite the pronounced US-specific decline, India’s broader export profile remained positive. According to the Commerce Ministry’s latest provisional figures, India’s overall exports grew 4.84% year-on-year in the April–October 2025 period, reaching USD 491.80 billion, compared to USD 469.16 billion in the same period last year. Several sectors posted strong gains, suggesting Indian exporters have been able to redirect goods to new geographies. Notably, electronics exports surged nearly 19% in October, continuing their multi-month upward trajectory. Pharmaceuticals and petroleum products also showed resilience, and services exports remain robust.

Officials said the data points to successful market-diversification efforts, with rising shipments to West Asia, Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Europe absorbing some of the US-led decline.

Exports to US fall; exports elsewhere compensate

The divergence between US-bound exports and global exports suggests Indian firms are finding alternative markets to counterbalance the tariff-driven disruption. Sectors hit hardest in the US saw improved traction in other regions, with electronics, engineering goods and precision manufacturing gaining particularly from demand in the Middle East and Europe. “The sharp drop in exports to the US is real and significant, but India’s overall export growth indicates we are not over-dependent on any single market,” a senior trade analyst said. “Exporters have moved quickly to reroute shipments, demonstrating both agility and the growing competitiveness of Indian products.”

Tariffs still a concern

GTRI warned that prolonged 50% tariffs could continue to drag on India’s export performance to the US, especially for labour-heavy sectors that have limited pricing power. The think tank recommended targeted government support and accelerated trade-negotiation efforts to protect market access. Still, the overall picture remains one of stability. With global exports growing and supply chains diversifying, India appears to be cushioning the blow from US-specific tariffs, a sign that exporters are successfully tapping into emerging demand across multiple markets.