India’s earnings growth poised for revival as macroeconomic tailwinds strengthen

Driven by supportive policy measures, easing interest rates, and stronger liquidity conditions, India’s corporate earnings are projected to rebound in the second half of the 2026 financial year, according to a report by brokerage firm Antique Stock Broking. The firm expressed renewed confidence in the domestic investment theme and turned tactically positive on financials, even as export-oriented sectors continue to face headwinds.

The report highlighted that India’s ongoing capital expenditure momentum, underpinned by government policy support, is expected to sustain the recovery in investment-linked industries. Antique noted that near-term equity market performance could depend on the revival of foreign portfolio inflows, which have lagged behind other emerging markets. The brokerage added that any resolution around U.S. tariff measures, along with an improving corporate earnings trajectory, could trigger a rebound in foreign investment.

Antique’s outlook underscored the influence of global factors such as easing U.S.–China trade tensions and monetary cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve, while affirming India’s macroeconomic resilience supported by prudent fiscal management, stable commodity prices, and improving agricultural output. The firm expects a visible turnaround in earnings in the latter half of FY26, projecting 13% growth for the Nifty 50 and 16% for its coverage universe (excluding financials and commodities). The rebound, it said, would be aided by multiple macro tailwinds including a 100-basis-point rate cut, middle-class income tax relief, GST 2.0 reforms, healthy monsoon conditions, lower input costs, and surplus banking liquidity.

Financials, infrastructure, and select industrial segments are expected to lead the uptrend, supported by expanding credit growth and sound asset quality. Meanwhile, the brokerage cautioned that service exports like IT and domestic consumption staples may continue to drag overall growth. It also noted that the upcoming festive quarter and rural demand trends will be key indicators of sustained consumption recovery.

Market observers described Antique’s assessment as cautiously optimistic, noting that its projections reflect a balance between domestic economic strength and external uncertainties. Analysts believe that the report’s emphasis on fiscal stability and investment-led growth aligns with broader market expectations for FY26. Overall, the outlook signals that policy continuity, liquidity support, and improving sentiment could collectively anchor India’s earnings revival in the months ahead.