India’s Coasts Head for Major Climate Disruptions as Warming Nears 1.5°C Threshold

India’s coastline is likely to experience significant climate-related disruptions within the next 14 years, according to a new report released by Azim Premji University , which projects rising temperatures, heavier rainfall, sea-level rise, and increased cyclone risks across coastal districts.

Titled Indian Coastal Region: Climate Projections 2021–2040 , the study uses high-resolution climate data to map district-level changes against a 1960s baseline. The report warns that India is expected to reach the critical 1.5°C warming threshold in the near future, narrowing the window for effective adaptation.

Among the key findings, nearly 40 coastal districts are projected to record summer temperature increases of more than 1°C. Coastal Kerala and Tamil Nadu are expected to experience dangerous wet-bulb temperatures , while Ernakulam could see one of the sharpest rises in maximum summer temperatures. On the west coast, Maharashtra and Gujarat are likely to face intensified monsoons, with suburban Mumbai projected to receive almost an additional week of heavy rainfall annually.

The report also highlights growing threats from sea-level rise, coastal erosion, salinity intrusion, and stronger tropical cyclones . Communities dependent on fishing, salt production, and other traditional livelihoods are already reporting disruptions linked to changing weather patterns.

Researchers said the findings underscore the need for district-specific adaptation measures , including climate-resilient infrastructure, improved disaster preparedness, and stronger local governance mechanisms.

The study draws attention to the climate risks facing India’s vast coastline , where millions depend on fragile coastal ecosystems for their livelihoods. It also exposes preparedness gaps in several coastal states , where infrastructure, urban planning, and public health systems may struggle to cope with increasingly frequent and intense climate impacts unless adaptation efforts are accelerated.