India to Cross USD 4 Trillion Mark Comfortably in a Year: CEA Nageswaran

India’s economy is set to comfortably cross the USD 4 trillion mark in FY27 , Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said on Friday, as the government unveiled a revised GDP series with an updated base year of 2022–23 .

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the new series of National Accounts, replacing the earlier 2011–12 base year , a revision typically undertaken every decade to reflect structural shifts in the economy and incorporate improved data sources. Officials said the overhaul captures the growing role of the digital economy , and integrates richer datasets such as GST collections, E-vahan vehicle registrations, Public Finance Management System data , and improved informal sector surveys.

Following the revision, India’s real GDP growth for FY26 has been estimated at 7.6 per cent , up from 7.1 per cent in FY25 under the comparable framework. Quarterly data show growth of 6.7 per cent in Q1, 8.4 per cent in Q2, and 7.8 per cent in Q3 of the current fiscal.

For FY27 , the growth projection has been revised upward by 20 basis points to 7–7.4 per cent , compared to the earlier estimate of 6.8–7.2 per cent in the Economic Survey. Nageswaran said the economy is “more likely to achieve a number closer to 7.4 per cent rather than 7 per cent,” citing strong investment momentum, resilient private consumption and improving manufacturing activity.

Nominal GDP growth is expected to be close to 11 per cent , placing India firmly above the USD 4 trillion threshold in the coming fiscal year. While the rebasing has marginally lowered nominal GDP levels for previous years, fiscal consolidation targets remain broadly on track.

Officials said the methodological upgrade, including use of double deflation in key sectors, is aimed at presenting a more accurate and contemporary picture of India’s economic performance.