European leaders unite to discuss US-Russia deal seen as weakening Ukraine on G20 sidelines
European leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and EU Council President António Costa, are convening on the sidelines of the G‑20 summit in Johannesburg to explore alternatives to a U.S. 28‑point peace blueprint for Ukraine. The plan, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump and supported by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is widely viewed as favoring Moscow as Russia’s invasion enters its fourth year.
The U.S. proposal has alarmed Kyiv, as it could leave Ukraine in a drastically weakened position. It envisions ceding the Donbas region to Russia, cutting Ukraine’s military nearly in half, surrendering long-range weapons, ending U.S. aid, and granting official status to the Russian language. Analysts warn that the proposal aligns with Moscow’s goal of neutralizing Ukraine and exerting long-term control.
Trump, Russia, and Ukraine: A high-stakes game
The emerging deal appears to be largely driven by Trump, who is reportedly eager to declare an end to the war to highlight his foreign policy credentials. With Russia gaining ground and Ukraine losing key positions, Trump may see the plan as a way to claim a “peace achievement” before the next U.S. elections.
However, whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy could accept such terms remains uncertain. While Trump’s influence and the potential withdrawal of U.S. support create intense pressure, European leaders caution that accepting a deal under duress could have devastating consequences for Ukraine’s sovereignty and security.
US-Russia talks without Ukraine at the table
The upcoming negotiations reportedly include only U.S. and Russian officials, excluding Ukraine. The U.S. delegation features Secretary of State Marco Rubio, national security adviser Mike Waltz, and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff. Russia’s side includes Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, presidential adviser Yuri Ushakov, and possibly Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian sovereign wealth fund. Kremlin officials say the talks are preparing for a potential Trump-Putin summit.
European leaders have stressed that Kyiv must be included in any meaningful peace process. Their parallel talks in Johannesburg aim to explore alternatives and ensure Ukraine’s voice is heard.
Europeans warn against rushing a peace deal
Starmer said, “Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but their actions never live up to their words.” He emphasized that Europe is committed to achieving a “just and lasting peace” alongside Washington and Kyiv. Von der Leyen and Costa reiterated “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine.” Wadephul warned that rushing into a deal without strong guarantees could endanger Ukraine and European security.
On Saturday, Zelenskyy commemorated Holodomor Memorial Day, marking the Soviet-era famine that killed millions. “We are once again defending ourselves against Russia, which has not changed and is again bringing death,” he wrote. “We defended, defend, and will always defend Ukraine. Because only here is our home. And in our home, Russia will definitely not be the master.”
Drone strike hits Russian oil infrastructure
Meanwhile, a Ukrainian drone strike hit a fuel refinery in southern Russia’s Samara region overnight, killing two and injuring two. Russia’s Defense Ministry reported shooting down 69 Ukrainian drones over Russia and occupied Crimea, including 15 over Samara. The strikes disrupted five airports and cut power to around 3,000 households in Rylsk.