Energy markets set for bearish 2026, metals and gold likely to shine: ING report

Global energy markets are expected to remain bearish in 2026, while metals and precious commodities may find better support, according to a report by ING , a Netherlands-based global financial services group.

ING

said the global oil surplus is likely to widen next year as OPEC+ continues to ramp up production even as demand growth remains modest. While uncertainty persists around Russian oil supply due to US sanctions, the impact is expected to be limited over the medium to long term, though higher volatility cannot be ruled out.

European gas markets may face short-term risks but are expected to become better supplied as new LNG export capacity comes online, particularly from the US. However, this expansion could leave the US gas market tighter. Developments related to Russia-Ukraine peace talks will also be closely watched, as any progress could put additional pressure on energy prices.

In metals, most base metals are expected to remain well supported in 2026. The aluminium market is likely to stay tight as China approaches its production cap and several producers elsewhere consider closures due to high power costs. ING believes aluminium prices will benefit from these supply-side constraints. Nickel, however, may continue to see price pressure due to persistent surpluses, while iron ore could trade lower amid weak Chinese demand and rising supply.

Gold is expected to remain resilient and could reach new highs in 2026. Expectations of Fed rate cuts and a weaker dollar are likely to support investment demand, while continued central bank purchases should further strengthen gold prices .

Overall, while energy markets may struggle with excess supply, stronger fundamentals in metals and sustained demand for gold could offer selective opportunities for investors in 2026.