Employment in an Age of Uncertainty

The protests in Noida last week, triggered by demands for higher wages despite a recent revision in minimum pay, have subsided. Production has resumed and order restored. Yet, the episode leaves behind a larger and more persistent question: what does it mean to be employed in India today?

At one level, the unrest was about wages not keeping pace with the cost of living. For many workers, monthly earnings are increasingly inadequate to cover essential expenses such as housing, food, transport, healthcare, and education. While nominal wages have shown some growth, recent data indicate that increases remain modest. According to the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) 2024–25, average monthly earnings for self-employed workers rose by roughly 5–6% annually, a pace that struggles to outstrip inflation. This widening gap between income and expenditure explains why even revised minimum wages often fail to meet expectations on the ground.

However, to view the issue solely through the prism of low wages would be incomplete. The anxieties surrounding employment today extend well beyond the industrial workforce. They are equally visible in the formal sector, where reports of layoffs, restructuring, and hiring slowdowns have become more frequent. Companies such as Oracle, Amazon, Meta, and Google have undertaken workforce reductions in recent years as part of broader realignments. In India, major IT firms including Infosys and Wipro have moderated hiring and tightened performance benchmarks. For a segment of the workforce, the concern is no longer wages alone, but the durability of employment itself.

This duality, inadequate wages at one end and employment insecurity at the other, reflects deeper structural features of the Indian economy. On paper, the labour market appears relatively stable. The unemployment rate stood at about 3.1–3.2% in 2024–25, according to PLFS data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). However, alternative estimates present a more volatile picture. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), unemployment has fluctuated between 5% and 7–8% in recent months, indicating underlying instability that headline figures may not capture.

More importantly, aggregate unemployment figures conceal the nature of employment itself. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO) and various government estimates, over 80–85% of India’s workforce is engaged in informal employment, characterised by low productivity, absence of social security, and irregular earnings. At the same time, PLFS data indicate that nearly 45% of the workforce remains dependent on agriculture, even though the sector contributes less than 20% of GDP. This imbalance points to the persistence of disguised unemployment and low incomes in rural areas, which in turn drive migration to urban centres.

Manufacturing, historically the engine of large-scale job creation, has not expanded sufficiently to bridge this gap. According to official labour statistics, it accounts for only about 12–14% of total employment. In contrast, NITI Aayog estimates show that the services sector contributes over 50% of GDP, but its employment profile is uneven. High-skilled segments offer stability and relatively high wages, while a large share of service employment lies in low-paying and insecure occupations such as retail, hospitality, and gig work.

Even where jobs are being created, their quality remains a concern. According to a recent National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) assessment, the informal sector added nearly 7–8 million jobs in 2025, underscoring its central role in employment generation. Similarly, industry estimates cited in recent reports indicate that MSMEs generated over 10 million jobs between 2023 and 2024, yet wage growth in these sectors remained constrained by rising input costs and inflation. This reinforces a critical point: employment is expanding, but not necessarily in forms that ensure stability or adequate income.

The increasing prevalence of contractual work, gig arrangements, and short-term employment further accentuates this uncertainty. According to NITI Aayog’s report on the gig economy, India could have over 23 million gig workers by 2030, highlighting the rapid shift toward flexible but less secure forms of employment. While such models provide entry points into the labour market, they often lack the protections associated with formal employment.

For young entrants to the labour market, the situation is particularly complex. PLFS data indicate that the labour force participation rate has risen to around 55–56% in recent years, suggesting more people are entering the workforce. Yet, various economic surveys estimate that India needs to generate 8–10 million jobs annually to absorb new entrants, a target that remains challenging. The result is rising underemployment and a growing mismatch between educational attainment and job opportunities.

In this context, the Noida protests acquire a broader significance. They are not merely an industrial dispute, but a reflection of a systemic imbalance between economic growth and employment quality. India continues to be one of the fastest-growing major economies, yet growth has not translated uniformly into secure and adequately remunerated employment.

Addressing this challenge requires a calibrated and multi-dimensional approach.

Labour-intensive manufacturing must be strengthened to absorb surplus labour at scale. Micro, small, and medium enterprises, which remain the backbone of employment, need sustained policy support in the form of easier credit, simplified compliance, and infrastructural improvements. At the same time, there is a pressing need to extend social security to informal and gig workers, who currently fall outside most safety nets.

Equally important is the alignment of education and skills with industry requirements, reducing the mismatch that characterises much of the labour market today. Wage policies, too, must gradually move beyond subsistence levels toward frameworks that reflect actual living costs.

The challenge, ultimately, is to restore the link between work and economic security. Employment must not only provide income, but also stability and the possibility of upward mobility.

Until that link is strengthened, episodes such as the one witnessed in Noida will continue to recur, not as isolated disturbances, but as indicators of a deeper unease. In an economy that aspires to sustained high growth, the question is no longer simply how many jobs are being created, but whether those jobs are enough to sustain the lives built around them.

That, more than anything else, defines employment in an age of uncertainty.