El Niño Events Now 36% Stronger Than Pre-Industrial Era: Study

El Niño events are becoming significantly stronger as human-driven climate change warms the planet, according to a new study published in the journal Science. Researchers found that El Niños are now more than 36% stronger than they were before industrialisation, with their intensity rising by about 16% over the past four decades.

El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can disrupt weather patterns across the globe. Strong events can trigger heatwaves, floods, droughts, food shortages and ecosystem damage, while causing economic losses running into trillions of dollars.

The study, led by Julia Cole, a paleoclimate scientist at the University of Michigan, examined evidence of El Niño events stretching back roughly 900 years. Researchers compared reconstructed El Niño activity with historical global temperature records and found that the increase in El Niño strength closely tracks the rise in global temperatures caused by human activities, particularly fossil-fuel emissions.

Scientists have long suggested that global warming could intensify El Niño, but reliable instrumental observations extend back only around 75 years, making it difficult to establish a long-term trend. Researchers therefore used historical climate records and indirect indicators to reconstruct earlier El Niño events, including the exceptionally strong 1877 event.

The findings are particularly significant as a powerful El Niño currently developing in the Pacific is forecast to strengthen further. According to Columbia University's El Niño tracker, the latest weekly reading stands at 2.7°C above normal, with the event expected to intensify for another two to four months.

Marine scientist Boris Worm of Dalhousie University, who was not involved in the research, said stronger El Niños could have severe consequences for fisheries, coral reefs, agriculture and communities worldwide.

The study highlights a growing concern among climate scientists: global warming may be amplifying not only average temperatures but also the intensity of natural climate fluctuations, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of weather-related disasters.