El Nino May Push India's Power Grid to the Brink, CREA Warns

India's power sector could face its biggest climate challenge yet as this year's El Nino is expected to impact the country's energy system more severely than anywhere else in the world, according to a new report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). The analysis warns that reduced renewable energy generation coupled with soaring electricity demand could place immense pressure on the national grid over the next year.

The report, which studies the expected transition from La Nina to El Nino between July 2026 and June 2027 , says weaker winds and lower rainfall will reduce electricity generation from wind farms and hydropower plants. At the same time, hotter temperatures are expected to drive a sharp rise in the use of air conditioners and cooling systems, significantly increasing power demand across the country.

CREA estimates that additional cooling demand could reach 10 terawatt hours (TWh) in a year. Spread evenly, this is equal to an average load of about 1.14 GW, less than half a percent of India’s 270 GW peak demand. But because cooling demand is concentrated during extreme heat and peak hours, the actual stress on the grid could be far sharper, adding several gigawatts of load precisely when the system is already stretched.

To bridge this shortfall, the report says India may have to rely more heavily on coal-fired power plants , which could result in an estimated 17 million tonnes of additional carbon dioxide emissions . In the worst-case scenario, extra coal-based generation could rise to 24 TWh , nearly half of the increase in coal power recorded last year.

The warning comes after India experienced one of its hottest summers on record , with electricity demand touching an all time high of 270 gigawatts (GW). CREA cautions that a strong El Nino could further strain the grid while worsening water shortages and putting additional pressure on agriculture.

The report argues that instead of expanding coal capacity, India should accelerate the deployment of solar power, battery storage and grid upgrades. With solar already supplying around 24 percent of daytime electricity demand , strengthening clean energy infrastructure will be key to meeting the country's 500 GW non fossil power target by 2030 while making the electricity system more resilient to future climate extremes.