Deal or disaster? Iran-US nuclear talks in Oman today
Iran and the United States are scheduled to hold nuclear talks on Friday in Oman, formally confirmed after days of uncertainty over venue and agenda. The discussions come amid heightened tensions, following deadly protests in Iran, recent military confrontations, and a volatile regional environment. New Delhi says it is “closely monitoring the situation in Iran” and reports no Indian nationals have been killed or are missing during the protests. The Indian embassy in Tehran remains in regular contact with its citizens, providing guidance and support.
The negotiations were nearly derailed earlier this week after Iran insisted on limiting the discussions strictly to nuclear issues and relocating the venue from Istanbul to Oman, prompting diplomatic pressure from Arab states to keep the talks on course. The talks take place against the backdrop of one of the deadliest protests in Iranian history, with activists reporting at least 6,876 deaths and 50,834 arrests in the government crackdown. Independent verification has been difficult due to internet shutdowns, and rights groups such as the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency caution that the confirmed fatalities are likely underestimated .
Tensions over Iran’s nuclear program remain central. In 2015, Western powers, along with China and Russia, struck a deal restricting Iran’s nuclear work while loosening sanctions , marking a major foreign policy achievement for then-US President Barack Obama . President Trump abandoned the deal during his first term, labeling it the “worst deal ever,” while indirect talks under President Biden achieved little progress. Iran subsequently began enriching uranium to 60% fissile purity , approaching the 90% threshold for weapons-grade material .
President Trump has linked the upcoming talks to broader diplomacy. On Wednesday, February 5, 2026 , he discussed Iran with Chinese President Xi Jinping , covering trade, Taiwan , and urging Beijing to pressure Tehran. Analysts say the call reflects the US strategy to isolate Iran diplomatically and economically , though China is unlikely to intervene militarily in a potential Iran-US conflict. Past conflicts, including Israeli strikes on Iran during the Israel-Gaza war , demonstrated that Beijing refrains from direct military involvement. Russia, engaged in its own war, also cannot be counted on for intervention, leaving Tehran largely isolated.
Trump has dispatched special envoy Steve Witkoff to participate in the talks and is pressing Iran for a complete dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure , including advanced centrifuges and highly enriched uranium. Tehran, however, is willing only to downgrade enrichment from 60% to 20% , leaving a critical gap between the two sides.
Amid uncertainty, Iranians are buying gold as a hedge against economic instability, rising inflation, and fears of conflict. Markets have reacted: oil prices have fluctuated sharply over the past two days , with Brent and WTI crude jumping nearly 3% on Wednesday after reports suggested the talks might falter, then falling about 2% Thursday as officials confirmed the meeting in Oman. Analysts warn of continued volatility, as any escalation could further disrupt Middle Eastern supply and drive prices higher.
The US has deployed significant military assets across the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group , with strike fighters, surveillance planes, and accompanying guided-missile destroyers , is positioned to project air and missile power. F/A-18 and F-35 fighter jets , long-range bombers equipped with bunker-buster ordnance , and thousands of troops at regional bases provide both offensive capability and rapid response. Analysts caution that while this demonstrates deterrence, it also increases the risk of escalation if miscalculations occur.
China maintains a maritime presence in West Asia, with a research vessel reportedly shadowing the Abraham Lincoln, primarily for reconnaissance and signaling , not combat intervention. Russia remains an observer and potential cautious backer, without active military engagement.
India continues to monitor the situation closely. Around 9,000–10,000 Indian nationals reside in Iran , but the government does not consider them stranded due to open airspace and ongoing commercial flights. The Indian embassy advises those wishing to return to India to use commercial services.