Climate Change Reshaping Carbon Storage In India’s Forests: IITM-Pune Study

Carbon stored in India’s forests is projected to increase across all major forest regions through the 21st century, though the rise will vary widely across regions and may mask deeper ecological risks, according to a study by scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

The research, led by Fitha Fathima with Mareena Mathew and climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll, was published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate. It examines how climate change may reshape carbon storage in India’s forests from the recent past to the near future, mid-century and the late 21st century under different fossil-fuel emission pathways.

India’s forests act as a crucial carbon sink , absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and storing it in living vegetation such as trunks, branches, leaves and roots , known as vegetation carbon biomass . Using the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model and climate projections from the CMIP6 climate modelling framework , the researchers simulated forest responses under low, medium and high emissions scenarios.

The study projects that the average carbon stock could rise from 7.74 kilograms of carbon per square metre during the historical period to 10.24 kg under low emissions , 11.76 kg under medium emissions and 13.67 kg under high emissions by the late 21st century, translating into increases of about 35 per cent, 62 per cent and up to 97 per cent by 2100 . The trends remain similar until around 2030 but diverge sharply after 2050 depending on emission pathways.

The rise will not be uniform. The largest gains are projected in desert and semi-arid regions , followed by the Trans-Himalayan region , Indo-Gangetic forest belt and the Deccan Peninsula . Carbon storage will also increase in the Western Ghats , Northeastern states and the Himalayan belt , though at a slower rate.

The study identifies rainfall variability as the strongest national-scale driver of forest carbon changes, often influencing growth with a lag of several years. However, scientists warn that higher carbon storage does not mean forests benefit from climate change , as warming could heighten risks from drought, wildfires, pests and land-use pressures .

Researchers say the findings highlight the need for region-specific, climate-aware forest management to safeguard India’s forests and sustain their role as a major carbon sink.