China population report 2025: growth hits lowest point since 1949

China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its official 2025 population data on January 19, 2026 , showing that the country’s population has dropped for the fourth consecutive year and the birth rate has plunged to a record low. According to the report, China’s total population fell to about 1.404-1.405 billion in 2025, a decline of roughly 3-3.4 million from 2024. Only 7.92 million babies were born, a 17 percent decline from the previous year and the lowest birth count on record since 1949, while deaths rose to about 11.31 million, meaning deaths continue to outnumber births.

China’s demographic story is shaped by some of the most far-reaching population control policies in modern history. In 1979, under Deng Xiaoping, the government formally implemented the One-Child Policy , limiting most urban families to a single child. Officials later claimed it prevented about 400 million births , but the policy also created profound demographic consequences. Abortion was widespread under that regime and remains high today: official data and research estimate around 9-13 million abortions per year , reflecting both the legacy of population control and ongoing contraceptive and reproductive health gaps.

In an official statement, Wang Pingping, Director of the Population and Employment Statistics Division at the NBS, said: “ China’s total population at the end of 2025 was 1,404.89 million, with 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths, and the total population decreased by 3.39 million compared with the previous year.” She emphasized that “China’s population size remains very large” and highlighted strengths such as rising education levels, longer life expectancy, and increasing urbanization , noting that “population high-quality development continues to advance.”

China’s fertility rate now sits near 1 birth per woman , far below the 2.1 replacement level, and experts say reversing the trend is extremely difficult even with policy. Many young couples cite high childcare, education, and housing costs, job insecurity, and intense societal pressure as reasons for delaying or forgoing children. Marriage rates dropped about 20 percent in 2024 , further limiting potential births.

The country’s age structure is shifting rapidly, with about 23 percent over age 60, creating a rapidly ageing society and shrinking workforce. By 2035, that senior cohort could reach roughly 400 million people , straining pensions, healthcare, and economic productivity as the working-age population contracts.

Beijing has responded by relaxing child limits to three, allocating billions of yuan for pro-natalist incentives , expanding parental leave, reimbursing pregnancy-related medical costs including IVF, offering direct subsidies of about 3,600 yuan ($500) per child, introducing daycare and childcare tax breaks, and controversially imposing a 13 percent tax on contraceptives in hopes of influencing birth decisions. Despite these efforts, births continue to fall, and experts say broader reforms such as reducing education and housing costs and improving workplace support for women may be necessary to alter long-term trends.

China’s demographic situation contrasts with global peers: India’s population was about 1.46 billion in 2025, up from roughly 1.452 billion in 2024, and continues to grow even as fertility declines toward replacement levels. UN projections indicate India may peak around 1.7 billion in the early 2060s before slowly declining, yet it is expected to remain the world’s largest population through 2100 . Other aging, low-fertility nations such as Japan, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Germany, and Russia also struggle with shrinking populations, but China’s challenges are especially acute because it has very low immigration to offset demographic losses.

China’s slowing demographic trajectory is widely seen as a structural economic issue: a falling workforce, rising dependency ratio, and aging society could slow growth, strain public finances, and reshape global markets, making population policy a central part of China’s planning for years to come.