Bihar Rajya Sabha polls turn high-stakes as AIMIM weighs entry

The political contest for the five Rajya Sabha seats from Bihar has intensified, with shifting strategies and new contenders reshaping the landscape ahead of the election scheduled for March 16. The ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), riding on its commanding assembly strength, looks to sweep all five seats, but opposition manoeuvres and unexpected moves by smaller parties have added fresh twists to the race.

The NDA commands a massive majority in the 243‑member Bihar assembly, with 202 MLAs following the decisive victory in the 2025 state polls, placing it in a strong position to win at least four seats comfortably. NDA leaders have publicly declared their intention to contest all five seats, asserting they will secure additional support where needed. JD(U) national general secretary Ashok Choudhary insisted the alliance will “safely secure the backing of more than three additional legislators” to capture all seats.

While the NDA appears poised for success, the calculation for the fifth seat has become a key battleground. Unlike the first four, it hinges on securing roughly 41 votes in the assembly—a figure neither the NDA nor the fragmented opposition can achieve alone.

The opposition Mahagathbandhan , led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), has reiterated its intent to fight for at least one seat, seeking support from parties outside its traditional fold. With only 35 MLAs between the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML) Liberation, CPI(M) and the IIP, the alliance is falling short of the numbers needed and has reached out to the All India Majlis‑e‑Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for backing. Earlier reports noted the grand alliance’s hopes that AIMIM, with its five MLAs, and BSP’s lone legislator might side with it to help clinch a seat.

However, developments in the last 48 hours have complicated that plan. AIMIM has signalled it may field its own candidate for the fifth seat rather than simply offer support, a move that could fragment opposition votes and undermine the Mahagathbandhan’s bid. Reports indicate AIMIM’s Bihar leadership has hinted at entering the fray independently, a decision that, if formalised, would dramatically change the electoral arithmetic.

The shift has heightened political drama, with AIMIM’s decision seen as a potential spoiler for both major blocs. Analysts suggest that if AIMIM does field a candidate, the contest could go to actual voting rather than be decided by consensus, increasing the importance of cross‑bloc negotiations and possible cross‑voting.

Amid these developments, Chirag Paswan, Union minister and head of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) , has clarified that his mother, Reena Paswan, will not be in the Rajya Sabha race, quashing previous speculation. He also reaffirmed the NDA’s determination to secure all five seats.

As the countdown to polling continues, Bihar’s Rajya Sabha election has evolved from a straightforward exercise into a complex political strategic battle, with smaller parties playing potentially decisive roles and traditional alliances facing new tests.