Bihar 2025: Two-phase showdown set amid high-stakes politics

The Election Commission on Monday announced the schedule for the Bihar Assembly elections, calling it the “mother of all elections” given its scale, complexity, and high political stakes. Polling for the state’s 243 seats will be held in two phases, November 6 and November 11, with counting on November 14.

However opinions differ and Bihar’s political landscape has long been defined by volatile alliances and strategic maneuvering. In 2015, the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan captured 107 seats, while JD(U) won 71 and BJP 53. By 2020, the NDA coalition, led by JD(U) and BJP, reclaimed power with 121 seats, with BJP emerging as the dominant partner. The 2024 Lok Sabha elections further strengthened the NDA’s position in the state.

This year, the Centre is making a major push in Bihar, pitching high-profile welfare and development initiatives. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and state leaders are highlighting schemes such as the ₹10,000 Mukhyamantri Mahila Rojgar Yojana, benefitting 75 lakh women, along with youth-centered programs worth over ₹62,000 crore, including the Jan Nayak Karpoori Thakur Skill University. Infrastructure projects, employment-oriented schemes, and social welfare initiatives are being presented as proof of the government’s development agenda.

The NDA, comprising JD(U), BJP, and smaller allies like Chirag Paswan’s LJP (Ram Vilas), Jitan Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha, and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLSP, is banking on Modi’s popularity, governance narrative, and Nitish Kumar’s local appeal. The BJP is also highlighting alleged corruption and law-and-order failures during the Lalu Yadav era to consolidate voter sentiment.

The INDIA bloc, led by Tejashwi Yadav, is countering with a mix of caste-based mobilization, youth engagement, and unemployment concerns. The alliance includes RJD, Congress, Left parties, and Mukesh Sahani’s Vikasheel Insaan Party. Former Congress president Rahul Gandhi has been leading the “Vote Adhikar Yatra” across Bihar, focusing on voter rights, youth engagement, and encouraging participation, particularly in areas affected by electoral roll disputes.

The Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has been a major point of contention. The final rolls now list 7.42 crore voters, down from 7.89 crore in June 2025. During the revision, 65 lakh names were removed and 21.53 lakh added. The process sparked controversy, with allegations of targeted deletion of voters, particularly women, Dalits, and Muslims, from critical constituencies. Patna added 1.63 lakh voters, Madhubani 85,645, and Nalanda 56,423, making the revision a potential factor in tight races.

Looking at historical trends, the NDA may benefit from the Centre’s schemes, Modi’s charisma, and welfare initiatives, while the INDIA bloc could gain ground in regions where caste equations, voter rights concerns, and unemployment dominate. The presence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj adds a wildcard element, appealing to voters seeking a new alternative.

Analysts say Bihar 2025 will be decided by turnout, alliance coordination, and the ability to mobilize voters affected by SIR controversies. With development promises, welfare schemes, caste dynamics, and leadership charisma all at play, the upcoming elections are shaping up to be a high-stakes, closely fought political battle.