Bangladesh election outcome ‘pre-determined’, warns Sajeeb Wazed Joy

Terming Bangladesh’s February 12 parliamentary polls a “selection, not an election” , Awami League leader Sajeeb Wazed Joy on Monday warned that even if the BNP emerges as the largest party, Islamist outfit Jamaat-e-Islami would effectively “call the shots from behind”, resulting in a weak, externally influenced government.

Speaking virtually at a discussion on a book titled “Inshallah Bangladesh: The Story of an Unfinished Revolution”, Joy alleged that the electoral outcome had been “pre-determined” to prevent any party from securing a clear majority, paving the way for coalition politics dominated by Jamaat. He said the BNP would win most seats but fall short of forming a strong government, while Jamaat, despite its limited voter base, would secure a disproportionately high number of seats.

From India’s perspective, Joy warned that a Jamaat-influenced government in Dhaka could pose serious security challenges. He cited risks of cross-border militancy, radicalisation, terror financing and infiltration , particularly along the porous eastern frontier. He added that any erosion of Bangladesh’s secular framework could revive extremist networks dismantled under the Awami League , undermining counter-terror cooperation and regional stability.

Placing the election in a wider political context, Joy said Bangladesh was being governed by an “unelected regime” that came to power after violent unrest last year and is now backed by Islamist forces. He alleged that one of the regime’s first acts was releasing convicted militants , including those jailed for the 2016 Holey Artisan Bakery terror attack, and accused authorities of using pressure groups to silence dissent, intimidate judges, and attack media houses .

Referring to the student-led protests in July–August 2024, Joy acknowledged that quota reform demands were legitimate but said the movement was hijacked by militants and Islamist groups, turning violent. He also criticised the banning of the Awami League , calling it a de facto suppression of progressive political forces , and alleged that smaller secular parties were prevented from campaigning through arrests, arson attacks and intimidation .

Describing the election as a “two-horse race” between BNP and Jamaat, Joy warned that a fragmented, coalition government would be easier to control , embolden Islamist forces, and threaten Bangladesh’s secular and democratic foundations. The February 12 polls, he said, would determine whether the country moves towards constitutional democracy or deeper instability masked by electoral formalities .

The discussion was organised by socio-cultural organisation Khola Hawa at the Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR).