Bagram Gambit: U.S. eyes Afghan base Near China’s nuclear heartland

In a surprise announcement, U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that Washington is exploring ways to reclaim Afghanistan’s Bagram Air Base, a move that could transform the already fragile regional balance into a new U.S.-China flashpoint.

Bagram, located 40 km north of Kabul, was once America’s largest military hub in Afghanistan until its 2021 withdrawal. Trump described the base as “an hour away from where China makes its nuclear missiles,” stressing its importance in countering Beijing’s growing influence in Central Asia.

Speaking alongside UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Trump criticized the earlier U.S. exit: “We gave it to the Taliban for nothing. We’re trying to get it back.”

China pushes back

Beijing reacted sharply, warning Washington against “hyping up regional tensions.” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian reiterated that Afghanistan’s sovereignty must be respected and cautioned that any attempt to militarize the region would destabilize security.

Kabul’s firm refusal

Afghanistan, now under Taliban rule, firmly rejected the idea of renewed U.S. military presence. Foreign ministry official Zakir Jalal stated that while Kabul is open to political and economic dialogue with Washington, “the U.S. will not be allowed to re-establish a military presence in Afghanistan.”

Why Bagram matters

The air base lies within strategic striking and surveillance range of Xinjiang, home to China’s Lop Nur nuclear test site and newly built missile silo fields near Hami and Yumen. Analysts note that control of Bagram could give the U.S. leverage to monitor China’s nuclear modernization, disrupt Belt and Road routes, and project influence across Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia.

Risk of standoff

Experts warn that any American move to retake Bagram would likely be seen by Beijing as a direct provocation. With Kabul opposing foreign bases and China wary of U.S. activity near its nuclear installations, Trump’s proposal risks escalating tensions into a broader U.S.-China confrontation.