Babis’ comeback shakes Czech politics, Raises concerns for Ukraine

Four years ago, it seemed the political career of billionaire Andrej Babis was coming to an end. The ANO movement Babis founded an abbreviation of Action of Dissatisfied Citizens, which translates as “Yes” in Czech was defeated in October 2021 by a coalition of pro-Western parties. The populist leader was expected to honor his promise to retire from politics rather than remain in opposition.

Instead, he immediately launched an aggressive campaign, blaming the ruling coalition for every problem, from the energy crisis to soaring inflation. He promised to reverse a widely unpopular increase in the state pension age and to end support for Ukraine, while ridiculing Prime Minister Petr Fiala for being a better prime minister of Ukraine than of Czechia.

On Saturday, ANO claimed its largest election victory since its founding in 2011. “This is, for me, the culmination of my political career,” said Babis, 71, who was a member of the Communist Party before the 1989 Velvet Revolution in former Czechoslovakia and has drawn comparisons to U.S. President Donald Trump.

Implications for Ukraine

Babis’ victory deprives Ukraine of a staunch supporter and steers Czechia toward a pro-Russian stance similar to that of Hungary and Slovakia. He is expected to align with Viktor Orban of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia, whose countries have refused to provide military aid to Ukraine, continue to import Russian oil, and oppose sanctions on Russia. Babis announced plans to abandon an internationally recognized Czech initiative that procures artillery shells for Ukraine from markets outside the EU. He also opposes NATO’s commitment to significantly increase defense spending and criticized a deal to purchase 24 U.S. F-35 fighter jets.

In Europe, Babis has already joined forces with Orban to form a new alliance in the European Parliament, the “Patriots for Europe,” representing hard-right groups critical of EU migration and climate policies, while advocating national sovereignty. Tomas Weiss, associate professor of international relations at Charles University in Prague, said he expects Babis to adopt a pragmatic approach to the EU due to his business interests. “Babis might be a vocal EU critic at home, but he would not create major obstacles in Brussels,” Weiss said. “Fico and Orban might be celebrating, but they aren’t the key players at the European level.”

Troubles in the past

Babis first made an impact on the Czech political scene in the 2013 election, finishing second and becoming finance minister. Among his initiatives, he proposed cutting beer taxes by more than half, a policy that resonated with the country’s beer-loving population. As owner of the Agrofert conglomerate, encompassing some 200 agriculture, food, chemical, and media companies, Babis faced allegations that finance ministry officials had used their powers to force competitors into liquidation.

Fearing the combination of wealth and political power, Parliament passed a law compelling Babis to transfer Agrofert to an independent trust fund. He was eventually dismissed as finance minister in 2017 over unexplained business dealings. Despite these controversies, his popularity remained strong. He won the 2017 election, becoming prime minister and forming a minority government with the Social Democrats, which governed with support from the maverick Communists.

During his turbulent term, police recommended indicting him over alleged EU subsidy fraud. Twice in 2019, a quarter of a million people protested Czechia’s largest demonstrations since 1989 demanding Babis step down due to conflicts of interest and other scandals. In 2021, he was implicated in the “Pandora Papers,” linking him and hundreds of other wealthy individuals to offshore accounts. He lost the subsequent parliamentary election and, two years later, was defeated in the largely ceremonial presidential race by retired army general Petr Pavel.

Outlook

Babis has bounced back politically, but challenges remain. He still faces EU subsidy fraud charges, and Parliament must lift his immunity for a court to issue a verdict. He also must comply with amended conflict-of-interest legislation, which now prohibits transferring ownership to trust funds or relatives. Without a majority in the lower house, Babis prefers to govern alone. However, his minority cabinet will require the tacit support of the anti-migrant Freedom and Direct Democracy party and the right-wing Motorists for Themselves party to win a mandatory parliamentary confidence vote.

Another option is for the three parties to govern together with a comfortable majority. Babis shares with the Motorists opposition to EU climate and migration policies, but the Freedom party seeks to withdraw Czechia from the EU and NATO a red line for Babis and the Motorists. Questions also remain over the Freedom party’s stability, which ran on a joint ticket with three fringe extremist groups, making internal disagreements likely. “We’re entering an unknown future,” analyst Vladimira Dvorakova of Czech Technical University in Prague told Czech public television.