Asia at climate crossroads - Carbon capture could backfire by 2050

Growing support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Asian countries to curb fossil fuel emissions could result in nearly 25 billion tonnes of additional greenhouse gases by 2050, potentially undermining the Paris Agreement and exposing their economies to risk, according to a new report released on Monday.

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technology designed to trap carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from sources such as power plants and industrial facilities, prevent them from entering the atmosphere, and store them underground in geological formations.

The study by Climate Analytics, a global climate science and policy institute, assessed current and prospective CCS deployment in China, India, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Australia, which together account for more than half of global fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions.

It noted that emissions from many Asian economies led by India and other developing countries in South and Southeast Asia show no immediate signs of peaking or rapidly declining, though reaching this tipping point is urgently needed.

While Asia's largest emitters, China and India, are largely disconnected from the Japan–South Korea–Southeast Asia–Australia CCS network, their future pathways will ultimately shape global climate outcomes. China already has the second-largest CCS pipeline in Asia, after Australia, while India has little notable presence so far.

The report highlighted that India, a major producer of steel and cement, could increasingly turn to CCS in these hard-to-abate sectors. However, cheaper and less risky options, such as renewable energy, electrification, and green hydrogen, are already available to reduce industrial emissions.

"Leading regional emitters China and India have less clear CCS plans. China already has a strong CCS presence, but it is also the most advanced country in deploying zero-emissions technologies. If China or India increasingly rely on CCS, it could have disastrous climate consequences," the report said.

India is already the world's second-largest steel consumer, with annual demand expected to grow 6.3% between 2025 and 2030. Cement consumption in India and other South Asian countries could rise by more than 40% during 2025–2035, the study added.

The report also warned that CCS projects worldwide have consistently underperformed, with capture rates often closer to 50% rather than the 90–95% claimed by industry. Deploying CCS in the power sector could also make electricity at least twice as costly as renewable energy backed by storage.

Japan and South Korea have provided extensive financial and policy support for CCS, while Australia and Southeast Asian countries are positioning themselves as carbon storage hubs. China has begun supporting new projects under its 2023 Plan for Green and Low-Carbon Technology Demonstration.

"We find a strong possibility that Asian countries could increase their support for CCS through 2050, risking a significant lock-in of unabated fossil fuels and stranded asset costs, not to mention the threat to achieving the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit," said James Bowen, lead author of the report.

"Asia is at a crossroads: while these countries haven't yet committed to a high-CCS path, many have tailored their CCS policies to protect their fossil fuel industries, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. This is a very risky strategy, not only for the Paris Agreement but also for their own economies," Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said.

The report concluded that a "deliberate low-CCS pathway," prioritizing renewable energy expansion, electrification, and energy efficiency, would be a more cost-effective and climate-aligned option for the region.