Appeal rejected: Bolsonaro edges closer to prison despite Trump’s attempts to shield him

Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro is running out of legal avenues to avoid prison after the Supreme Federal Court rejected his final appeal against a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn the 2022 election results. The ruling, which became official at midnight on Friday, confirmed the conviction for crimes that included forming an armed criminal organisation, attempting to abolish democracy, and organising a violent coup plot.

According to Brazilian media reports, Trump had publicly urged Brazilian authorities and political allies to drop the case or delay the proceedings, repeatedly describing the trial as politically motivated and calling for it to end immediately. Legal officials in Brasília maintained that the process would not be influenced by any external pressure, a position that was reaffirmed when the ruling was finalised.

Bolsonaro, who lost the 2022 election to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was convicted in September for leading efforts to block Lula from taking office. Four of the five judges on the panel voted last week to uphold his 27-year-and-three-month sentence.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes stated in the ruling that a “deliberate attempt to execute a coup” had been established under Bolsonaro’s leadership and that his supporters’ violent storming of Congress, the presidential palace, and the Supreme Court on January 8, 2023, had been “directly instigated.” The sentence, Moraes noted, reflected Bolsonaro’s “high degree of culpability.” His age, 70, had already been factored in as a mitigating element.

Bolsonaro has been under house arrest since August in an unrelated case involving breaches of precautionary measures. Because of persistent health problems stemming from a 2018 stabbing, a request to serve the prison sentence at home “may be submitted,” according to his legal team.

Federal prosecutors said the coup plot, which allegedly included plans to assassinate President Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Justice Moraes, failed largely because senior military leaders refused to support it. In an audio recording released by the Supreme Court, federal police agent Wladimir Soares, suspected of belonging to an assassination squad, said, “We were ready to kill a lot of people. We were only awaiting orders from the president, but he backed down.”

On the same day the appeal was denied, a majority of judges voted to advance a criminal case against Bolsonaro’s son, Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro. He was charged in September after Brazil’s chief prosecutor accused him of coercion and of lobbying U.S. officials to impose sanctions on Brazil in a bid to influence the outcome of his father’s trial. Eduardo, currently in the United States, has publicly claimed credit for encouraging the White House to raise tariffs on Brazilian imports to 50 percent as retaliation for his father’s prosecution.

Brazil’s Federal Police have reportedly completed an operational plan for Bolsonaro’s potential arrest, which “has been kept ready” and awaits only an order from Justice Moraes. The plan includes rapid deployment teams, alternate convoy routes, provisions for possible unrest outside Bolsonaro’s residence, and the option of using aircraft to minimise public visibility.

Senior officials said monitoring of the case is being conducted daily, and officers “are prepared to act immediately once the warrant is issued.”

For now, Bolsonaro remains confined to his home as investigators pursue a separate probe into alleged efforts to pressure the Supreme Court and obstruct inquiries related to attempted coup activities.