Adani firms get Fitch confidence boost as risks ease

The outlooks on Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) and Adani Energy Solutions Ltd (AESL) have been revised to ‘Stable’ from ‘Negative’ by Fitch Ratings, as contagion risks across the Adani Group were assessed to have eased.

Both companies’ long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) were affirmed at ‘BBB-’, while Adani Electricity Mumbai Ltd’s (AEML) senior secured notes and those issued by AESL’s subsidiary, Adani Transmission Step-One Ltd, were also affirmed at ‘BBB-’.

It was stated by Fitch that the revised outlooks were based on an easing of contagion risk and continued access to diversified funding sources within the group. “A stable outlook is reflected in Fitch’s view that contagion risk across the Adani Group has eased, as access to diversified funding sources has been demonstrated,” the agency’s note read.

Access to funding maintained despite legal and regulatory developments :

It was observed that the group’s access to both onshore and offshore lenders has been retained, despite a U.S. indictment filed in November 2024 involving certain board members of Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL). The spillover risk from the case was considered contained for AESL and AEML, as no direct indictment was issued against them and funding capability was maintained.

A September 2025 ruling by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) was also cited, in which no violations of disclosure norms or evidence of market manipulation were found in relation to the 2023 short-seller allegations.

Since late 2024, more than USD 24 billion in new funding has been raised by Adani Group companies, with USD 1.8 billion borrowed by AESL for expansion in transmission and smart-metering projects.

Operational strength and investment activity highlighted :

For Adani Ports, a strong business profile was highlighted by Fitch, supported by geographically diversified port operations, advanced logistics infrastructure, and sustained throughput growth. EBITDA margins of around 55% were expected to be maintained, with total debt-to-EBITDA projected to remain below 2.5x through FY29.

AESL’s leverage was forecast to increase to 5.9x in FY26 due to higher capital expenditure, before easing to 5.7x by FY28, as returns from new projects are realized.

AEML’s earnings and cash flows were considered sufficient to fund most of its capex, with an EBITDA-to-net interest coverage ratio of 2.4x in FY26, which remains above Fitch’s downgrade sensitivity threshold.

Both entities were assessed to benefit from stable regulatory frameworks, predictable revenues, and solid operational performance, supported by professional management and the strategic investment of the Qatar Investment Authority in AEML. “Continued investment in projects has been observed, with capex seen picking up in the first half of FY26,” the rating agency added.

Adani Ports, handling about one-fourth of India’s cargo through 15 ports, was acknowledged for its diversified operations and strong infrastructure base. Annual cargo growth of 10–15% and EBITDA margins near 55% were forecast, with leverage expected to stay within manageable levels.